Keeler, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

182
FXUS65 KVEF 241537
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
837 AM PDT Sat May 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Lighter winds are expected today compared to
yesterday, with non-impactful southwesterly breezes possible at
times through the period. Cooler temperatures are expected today
as a low passes through the Southern Great Basin, before a rebound
occurs as ridging builds into the region during the week. Other
than scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across Inyo,
Esmeralda and Nye Counties, dry conditions will persist through
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...The shortwave is currently centered over southern
Nevada and satellite imagery shows mid and upper level cloud cover
across much of the area as a result. There is mostly dry air near
the surface as seen in this morning`s sounding as well as in
forecast soundings around the area. High resolution models continue
to show shower and thunderstorm development in the southern Great
Basin and Inyo County starting early this afternoon and lasting into
the evening. Given the dry low levels, most of the rain will
evaporate before it hits the ground and the main concern will be
gusty outflow winds. The strongest gusts may approach 40 mph
according to high resolution models. Outside of storms, breezy
southwesterly winds with gusts of around 20 mph persist across the
Mojave Desert today. Current temperatures are several degrees lower
compared to this time yesterday and highs will be closer to average
for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday.

Satellite imagery overnight showed a deepening shortwave moving into
central California. A fairly impressive baroclinic-leaf type
signature was noted in on water vapor ahead of the system, which was
surprising given the lack of moisture and strength with this piece
of energy. Radar through the night matched the drier solution
expectations with little to no precipitation developing and no
rainfall reported across the areas.

This shortwave will move into the Southern Great Basin today, with
the low cutting off and centering itself over the area by late this
afternoon. 500mb temperatures are notably cold, so cold core
scattered precipitation may develop with this feature as it moves
through Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and eastern Lincoln counties.
Weak instability will develop due to cold temperatures aloft and
decent surface heating, so afternoon thunderstorms are possible.
With PWATs remaining below normal and forecast soundings showing
very dry air below 500mb, any precipitation today will struggle to
reach the ground. HREF probabilities for 1 hour rainfall over 0.01in
is 30% at most, mainly in the terrain. HRRR shows zero rainfall for
total rainfall amounts through this evening. So rainfall impacts and
a flash flood threat is minimal to none. With steep lapse rates and
dry low levels, gusty winds as rain evaporates as it falls will be
the main threat. Given instability is rather low, the risk for wind
impacts is low. HREF highlights northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and
central Nye counties with a 30% chance of gusts over 35 MPH through
this afternoon with any storms. Given the amount of dry air at the
surface, will need to watch for virga bombs increasing the risk for
gusty winds. Hi-res wind models do show some outflows up to 40 mph
in Esmeralda and Nye counties late this afternoon.

Any showers and thunderstorms that develop today will diminish after
sunset. The shortwave will move east tonight and Sunday, lifting out
as it does so. Mid levels will also warm as this feature weakens- so
by Sunday afternoon the threat for showers and thunderstorms will be
lower than today. Other than a stray shower in northern Lincoln
County Sunday afternoon, it should be dry across the area. After a
brief cool down today as the low moves through, temperatures on
Sunday will rebound again. Expect high temperatures this afternoon
to be 6-8 degrees cooler than yesterday, but then a few degree warm
up for afternoon high temperatures on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.

Another shortwave will follow on the heels of this weekend`s system,
moving through the region early next week. The most noticable impact
from this system will be breezy, sub-advisory southwesterly winds
picking up on Monday as the system approaches the area. This system
will also slow down our warming trend for a day or two before
ridging reestablishes itself over the area and our warming trend
resumes. A cut-off low will approach the coast of California during
the latter half of the week, attempting to undercut the high
amplitude ridge over the western US, resulting in a pseudo rex block
looking pattern. Exact details remain blurry due to uncertainty
regarding the exact position of the cut-off low and ridge. However,
even with this uncertainty, there is high confidence (75 to 90%
chance) in above normal temperatures through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...
Southwesterly to southerly winds will continue the next 24 hours.
Intermittent wind gusts to around 20 kts early this morning will
become more persistent after 16z and expected to continue into this
evening before diminishing. VFR conditions prevail through the
forecast period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Intermittently gusty
southwesterly to southerly winds will continue across most of the
region the next 24 hours. Across northern Inyo County and central
Nevada, winds will be more variable, with a low (10-25%) chance of
showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening.
Lightning and erratic gusty winds are expected with storms that
develop, with erratic winds and dust also accompanying any outflow
that develops. The only TAF site that has a threat of any storms
will be KBIH and the greatest threat will be between 21z-02z.
Elsewhere, dry conditions will continue. Wind gusts will diminish
after sunset Saturday evening, with sustained speeds dropping to
10kt or less areawide, with the exception of the Western Mojave
Desert area where westerly gusts to 20-30kt are expected the
majority of the period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meltzer
SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Gorelow

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